LEAP Aftermarket — Modelo Anualidad Installed Base
conceptos
Definición: Modelo de valoración para motores LEAP (Safran/GE CFM JV) donde la base instalada creciente genera flujos recurrentes crecientes vía shop visits, workscope expansion y contratos RPFH (Rate Per Flight Hour).
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Dinámica del aftermarket LEAP
| Métrica H1-2026 | Valor | Tendencia | |-----------------|-------|-----------| | LEAP deliveries | 1,030 (+41% YoY) | 4to trimestre consecutivo >500 | | Shop visits LEAP | +30% YoY | Flota madurando | | Workscope per visit | Increasing | Más piezas por visita | | Third-party MRO share | Growing | Descentralización mantenimiento | | RPFH revenue | +40.4% USD | Contratos rate-per-flight-hour |
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Mecánica de la anualidad
- Installed base creciendo: 1,030 LEAP H1-2026 → ~2,200 FY2026 → ~15,000+ 2030
- Shop visit timing: Primer shop visit ~5-7 años post-delivery → ola 2027-2030
- Workscope expansion: Cada visita más completa (piezas vida limitada, upgrades)
- RPFH contracts: Safran reconoce revenue ratable over contract life
- LEAP-1A: Maverick HPT blade late 2024 → profit recognition started 2025 (catch-up included)
- LEAP-1B: Blade certified, awaiting entry into service (late 2026 → H2 profit, 2027 → full year)
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Valoración: Shop visit como unidad económica
| Componente | Valor por visita | Frecuencia | |------------|------------------|------------| | Partes vida limitada (LLP) | $2-4M | Cada 5-7 años | | Performance restoration | $1-3M | Cada shop visit | | Upgrades/SBs | $0.5-1.5M | Opcional | | Total por visita | $3.5-6.5M | Cada 5-7 años |
Fleet size 2030: ~15,000 LEAP → ~2,000-3,000 shop visits/año → $7-19B/año recurring revenue
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CFM56 vs LEAP — Transición generacional
| Métrica | CFM56 (Legado) | LEAP (Nueva gen) | |---------|----------------|------------------| | Installed base | ~25,000 | ~2,200 (creciendo rápido) | | Shop visits/año | ~3,000 (maduro) | ~500 (creciendo 30%/año) | | RPFH margin | Estable, conocido | Ramping up (LEAP-1A started, 1B pending) | | Workscope | Estable | Expanding (más LLP, más upgrades) |
Implicación: Safran transitioning de CFM56 cash cow a LEAP growth engine. 2025-2030 = transición; post-2030 = LEAP domina.
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Conexiones wiki
- safran — LEAP 1,030 H1, aftermarket +40%, RPFH LEAP-1A active, 1B pending
- aeroespacial defensa — Industria sobreponderar, dual engine (LEAP + defense)
- cfm56 vs leap — Transición generacional, timeline 2025-2035
- safran vs ge — JV dynamics, profit split, single-source risk
- caza defensa eu — Safran #2 entry (dual engine: LEAP annuity + defense electronics)
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Gatillos de revisión
| Evento | Acción | |--------|--------| | LEAP-1B RPFH profit recognition start | Re-rating LEAP annuity visibility | | CFM56 shop visit volume decline >10% YoY | Confirm transition timeline | | Third-party MRO share >50% LEAP visits | Margin pressure signal | | LEAP deliveries guidance cut | Installed base growth reassessment |
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Nota de evolución 2026-09-03 (elisa-fernandez)
Concepto extraído de Safran H1-2026: LEAP 1,030 deliveries H1 (+41%), shop visits +30%, RPFH +40%. No es solo engine sales — es installed base annuity con 20+ años visibility. LEAP-1A RPFH profit recognition started 2025 (Maverick HPT blade); LEAP-1B pending (blade certified, awaiting entry). Modelo similar a ramageddon pero en services no product: installed base → recurring revenue annuity.